See more Toronto Sun on Google — save as a Preferred Source
Could a war between Canada and the United States actually happen?
Given how the relationship between the two nations has devolved over the past year and a half, it’s not surprising that Prime Minister Mark Carney has taken much of that time to prepare for the risk that President Donald Trump might order military action against our country.
“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney told the New York Times in an interview published on Wednesday.
The former Governor of the Bank of Canada and Britain added, “That just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to” prepare for that worst-case scenario.
Trump has repeatedly spoken about turning Canada into the 51st state. In January 2025, he ruled out using military force to annex Canada but also said he would consider using “economic force” to get Canada to become part of America.
‘Reliable partner’ also means ‘reliable supplier’
In his lengthy, wide-ranging interview with the Times , Carney spoke about Canada’s role as a “middle power,” and made it clear that in many ways, what’s good for his country is also good for the U.S.
Carney used the auto industry and the decades-long integration between the two countries as a prime example, and also spoke about the importance of Canada’s potash, the key ingredient for fertilizer — not just for the U.S. but for Mexico as well.
But when asked about using Canada’s energy as leverage in the trade war with the U.S., the prime minister admitted he was reluctant to limit, tariff or curb those exports to our neighbour.
“If you’re a reliable partner and you supply energy or food to somebody it keeps running, it’s a very, very, very high threshold to change that,” he said. “Never say never, but it starts from a position of, we need to be a reliable supplier in all cases.”
Reducing reliance on the U.S. and wanting China to be a reserve currency
While he outlined ways of working with the United States, Carney also described how Canada is diversifying away from the U.S. in order to reduce its economic and strategic dependence on the U.S., which, for many, has long been a risk but even more so since trade talks collapsed last month.
He opened up about Canada expanding its economic ties with China, noting to the publication that there is a “directional shift” underway in which countries were re-evaluating their exposure to the U.S. dollar.
Carney conceded that such a move would be limited until there was “proper liberalization” of China’s currency and financial system, but said he expected the demand for U.S. dollar alternatives to grow, in part because of the Trump administration’s decision to rewire trading relations and use integration as “leverage.”
“It’s the ‘fool me once, fool me twice’ point,” the PM said. “Once you see that, then you start to think, how do I diversify away?”
- Trump rips Canada for its 'unchecked and unvetted' immigration policy
- LILLEY: Trump's trade war could cost Canada jobs for decades
- Mark Carney's odds of being Time magazine's person of the year surges after European trip: Betting site
Carney also discussed that Canada is considering alternatives to buying American F-35 fighter jets, as Canada’s plan to procure a full fleet of stealth fighters remains under a political review by the federal government.
As for Elon Musk’s SpaceX, he said Canada will seek to reduce its reliance on the American-based company’s satellite broadband services. “Starlink, we will diversify away from, no question.”
He acknowledged that other satellite network options are still less capable and resilient, but pointed out that “from a defense perspective, and certainly pooled with other partners, Europeans, Koreans potentially, you get to scale and you cut that dependency.”
The two sides still speak often
Despite the tense relationship, Carney told the Times he is speaking to Trump “frequently,” and the two have spoken “a number of times” since trade talks dramatically collapsed in August and each side mounted fresh tariffs.
“From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues,” he said.
“He’s direct. I’m direct in terms of where positions are,” he continued. “It’s much more efficient that way, and so you know that exists and that will continue to exist.”
Carney added: “Is there a mutually beneficial trade deal between Canada and the U.S.? Absolutely, absolutely there is one.”