South Africa’s motorists are facing the prospect of another fuel price increase in September, with the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data pointing to higher prices across all major fuel categories.

The latest figures indicate that 93 unleaded petrol could increase by around 83 cents per litre, while 95 petrol is showing an under-recovery of approximately 94 cents per litre.

The outlook for diesel is considerably more concerning.

The latest CEF data points to an increase of around R2.87 per litre for 0.05% diesel and R3.07 per litre for 0.005% diesel.

Illuminating paraffin is also showing an under-recovery of approximately R2.24 per litre.

Diesel remains the biggest concern

The potential diesel increase could have significant consequences for South Africa’s economy.

Diesel is widely used by freight and logistics operators, farmers, construction companies, mining operations and other businesses.

A sharp increase in diesel costs could therefore push up transportation and operating expenses, with some of those costs potentially filtering through to consumers in the form of higher food and other goods prices.

The latest outlook is nevertheless an improvement on the beginning of August, when CEF data indicated that petrol could increase by around R1 per litre and diesel was facing potential increases approaching R5 per litre.

However, the improvement seen during the middle of the month has since weakened, with the latest figures once again showing substantial under-recoveries.

Global oil prices remain a key factor

International oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate remain the two biggest factors influencing South Africa’s monthly fuel-price calculations.

Brent crude prices have remained volatile amid geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions in global oil markets. Earlier in August, Brent fell below $90 a barrel, providing some relief to South African motorists.

However, renewed pressure in international oil markets has contributed to the deterioration in the September fuel-price outlook.

The rand has also remained relatively resilient against the US dollar, helping to cushion some of the impact of higher international petroleum prices.

Despite this, the latest CEF figures show that the currency has not been strong enough to eliminate the under-recoveries, particularly for diesel.

Final fuel price still to be determined

Motorists should note that the CEF figures are indicative and do not represent the final September fuel-price adjustments.

The calculations can change during the remainder of August as international oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate move.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources will announce the final adjustments after the full monthly review period.

The new fuel prices are expected to come into effect at midnight on Tuesday, 1 September 2026.

For households already under pressure from rising living costs, another increase at the pumps would add to the cost of commuting and transport.

Diesel users, particularly businesses and commercial operators, face a potentially much larger increase if the current CEF indications are carried through to the final adjustment.

Latest numbers

Below, the latest projections for September 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):

FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products

Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $94.39 a barrel.

Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.02/$