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After a summer of fluctuating prices at the gas pump, prepare for some slight relief.

Gasoline prices reached atmospheric levels in Toronto and elsewhere across the country during the warmer months, but there is marginal relief coming to local gas stations for the next six months.

“About Sept. 17 is when I expect prices to drop,” gas price analyst and Canadians for Affordable Energy president Dan McTeague told the Toronto Sun. “That could change a little bit between now and then, but it looks like we are starting to get the effect of the United States moving towards winter blends.”

Gas prices around the GTA are in the range of $1.839 starting a new work week. McTeague said consumers will be looking at prices in the range of $1.799 come the switchover from summer to winter gas on Thursday as refineries manage the transition. The refineries may delay the transition by a day, but by next weekend gas prices should reflect the winter cost.

Keep in mind, nothing is absolute when it comes to gas prices. But consumers should expect to see a five- to 10-cent-per-litre drop at the pump by Thursday.

The remainder of summer fuel will be fed into the system before winter specifications take effect. McTeague said Canada burns roughly two million litres of gas per day. There will be summer blend gasoline available until the supply runs out, but the price will reflect winter numbers.

McTeague said there will be zero changes to your car in terms of performance, so no worries there.

The big difference

But these modifications at the gas stations across Canada are not voluntary as the federal government mandates changes to winter fuel. The primary difference between winter and summer fuel is all in the mix; additives are included to meet the specifications of the colder weather.

The additive in winter blend gas is butane, which is a plentiful and cheap component. It is added to help your vehicle start during colder temperatures. If butane sounds familiar, it should: The fuel is the primary ingredient in pocket lighters, utility/BBQ lighters and torch lighters.

The key point is butane fires up reliably in the sub-zero temperatures Canadians are exposed to in the winter months.

“When it gets really cold, it ignites better,” McTeague said. “You don’t want that kind of volatility in your gasoline when it is 30 or 35 C outside because it can create problems for the engine, but it can also lead to evaporation and making its way into the environment.”

McTeague said that butane “runs very effectively under 5 C.”

Switching seasonal fuel blends is required by federal and provincial regulations. Those regulations set standards for fuel volatility depending on the time of year. It’s been the law for about four decades .

“Butane is volatile and great in colder weather,” McTeague said. “Butane will ignite no matter what and you want that in the winter, so your car takes off.

“Summer gasoline has lower volatility, meaning it is less likely to evaporate when exposed to high temperatures. Reducing gasoline evaporation is important because fuel vapours contribute to the formation of ground-level ozone and smog.”

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The time for transition

Federal regulations also distinguish between summer and winter fuel with the summer period defined annually as April 15 through Sept. 15.

Meanwhile, the Ontario government has gone out of its way to ease the transition for the petroleum industry in this endeavour.

“We have implemented regulatory changes to make it easier for the petroleum industry to switch between summer and winter,” an April 2025 release from the Environmental Registry of Ontario said. “These changes will streamline processes and reduce administrative burden, while still keeping people and the environment safe.

“Companies will be permitted to transfer winter-grade gasoline to a storage facility before the established switchover date. However, the broader distribution, including retail sales, of winter-grade gasoline will still be prohibited before the switch-over date.”

According to the government, there will be no federal excise tax on gas until Jan. 31, 2026. Come Feb. 1, prices are expected to rise as the 5% tax is enforced again. Come April 1, there will be a return to full rates of 10 cents per litre for gasoline and 4 cents per litre for diesel.

Originally, the tax break was scheduled to expire on Sept. 7.

Nonetheless, McTeague offered some suggestions for drivers this winter to help manage the costs of driving even more.

“There are a lot of things … not crazy stuff, driving-wise, but warming up the vehicle is fine but don’t do it excessively and make sure the vehicle has a tune-up in order to keep the vehicle running more efficiently,” he said. “Those are some of the easy things you can do, but when it comes down savings, there is not a whole lot more you can do other than looking after and maintaining your vehicle and driving only when you need to.”

ganderson@postmedia.com

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