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It’s not Donald Trump’s map jokes or hockey memes that should worry Canadians. It’s what he’s signalling about trade.
Sure, those posts are annoying. They get under your skin, which is why Trump is posting them.
What should really worry Canadians is when he starts talking about banning Canadian products or devaluing the American dollar .
Those have real-world implications for the Canadian economy, for Canadian workers and their jobs. Over the weekend, Trump mused about both of those issues.
As Canadian counter-tariffs on American goods are set to take effect on Tuesday, tariffs of 15% to 50% on a range of goods worth some $27.6 billion, the Americans are plotting their next move. We could see additional tariffs on Canadian goods and the Americans are apparently considering product bans in retaliation for most Canadian provinces banning American booze.
The real threat
The Americans already imposed a 50% tariff on imported Canadian alcohol. Now we could be looking at a ban.
Mostly, that would hit the spirits industry, which sells nearly half of what it makes to the United States each year, mostly Canadian whisky brands such as Crown Royal and Canadian Club.
Perhaps later this week, Trump will issue a ban on those products. Or perhaps he will follow through on one of his Truth Social posts and ban the sale of Bombardier jets south of the border.
“NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES! Their products aren’t good enough! Over 50% of their revenue comes from the United States — They live off American Buyers, American Companies, American Airports, and American Service — All while Canada blocks our GREAT American Banks, and Companies, throughout the U.S.A.,” Trump posted on Monday.
Tariff concern overrated in U.S.?
Bombardier, which is based in Montreal with significant operations in Toronto, also has plants and facilities in Wichita, Kan., Moorpark, Calif., Dallas, Chicago, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., and more. The company employs thousands of Americans, but just like Trump wants all auto jobs in the U.S., he apparently only wants planes made there now.
Wait until he discovers how many Airbus aircraft are flying around the U.S.
As much as Canadians like to believe that the tariff issue is hurting Trump, there are many other issues hurting him and dragging down his popularity and we should be cautious about believing tariffs on Canada are a major vote mover. Republicans, even in border states, are leaning into the message that tariffs are about protecting the jobs of American workers.
The Americans can point to increases in production in manufacturing, autos and steel, in particular, to support their claim that tariffs are working.
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Republicans are buying in
On CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday, Republican Rep. Lisa McClain, who represents Michigan’s 9th Congressional District, said that her constituents back tariffs on Canada.
“We have a lot of farmers in our communities and what the farmers are excited about and actually applaud the president for is actually standing up to Canada and try and level the playing field with the tariffs,” McClain said.
The standard Republican talking points now are Canada is ripping off the U.S. and the tariffs are helping. A recent YouGov poll found that 57% of Republican voters support tariffs on Canada, rising to 74% among MAGA Republicans.
Our message that tariffs hurt American consumers is clearly not getting through to Trump’s voters.
Don’t ignore the dollar
The thing that should really concern Canadians, though, is Trump further devaluing the American dollar. I say further devaluing because while there has been little change in Canada-U.S. exchange rates, the American dollar has dropped by about 11% since Trump came into office.
On Sunday morning, Trump took aim at the low Canadian dollar in a social media post.
“Canada’s (currency) Dollar imbalance with the U.S. is unacceptable. It has been that way for years – but no longer!” Trump posted.
It’s not clear what Trump will or could do to alter the dollar’s trajectory, but any rise in value for the loonie would hurt Canadian manufacturers, many of whom have only been getting by thanks to the lower dollar.
The social media posts by Trump over the weekend were erratic and at times perplexing. Canadians would be wise to spend less time reacting to the trolling and more time watching what comes next because things are likely about to get bumpy.
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