President Trump said Thursday the U.S. will not attack Iran ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

Why it matters: Trump had been considering for several days resuming major combat operations before the midterms. However, his past statements about his intentions in Iran haven't always matched what he ultimately did.

  • If major combat operations resume, they're expected to include large-scale strikes on Iranian energy facilities, infrastructure and nuclear targets, sources say.
  • Resuming the war in the next three to four weeks could influence the midterms, in part because oil prices might rise in response. It could also influence Israel's elections, which are scheduled for Oct. 27.

What he's saying: "I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily, and while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, with Oil flowing in Record Numbers of Barrels through the Hormuz Strait ... we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Flashback: In June 2025, before Operation Midnight Hammer, the White House said Trump would decide "within two weeks" whether the U.S. would join Israel's war against Iran. When he made that statement, he had already decided to attack Iran's nuclear sites.

  • On Feb. 27, less than 24 hours before Israel and the U.S. launched the war against Iran, Trump claimed he hadn't made a decision on going to war. In reality, Trump had already decided to authorize the attacks.

Driving the news: The Pentagon instructed U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) several days ago to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran, Axios reported on Wednesday.

Behind the scenes: On Tuesday, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir spoke with senior U.S. officials who briefed him on the U.S. military's preparations for the possibility of resuming major combat operations against Iran within the next three weeks, according to a U.S. official and another source briefed on the call.

  • Zamir said during the call that resuming the war within that timeframe could lead to the postponement of the Israeli elections, given the assessment that Iran would respond by launching missiles at Israel, the sources said.
  • The IDF declined to comment on conversations between Zamir and his U.S. counterparts.

Between the lines: It's unclear whether Trump's statement will reassure Iranian leaders that an attack is not imminent.

  • U.S. and Israeli officials say Iranian leaders are deeply suspicious of Trump's statements.
  • The officials said Iranian leaders were surprised twice and want to avoid a third surprise attack.

What to watch: Trump said the U.S. and Iran "are having productive discussions." But there are no signs that the major differences between the two sides have narrowed.