It’s time for my annual Vikings season forecast. And like my forecasts for the rest of the NFC North teams, I will be looking at roster/coaching changes this offseason, injuries and luck factors from last season, and the change in strength of schedule from last season to this season to guide my forecast.
One thing you never find attached to any pundit’s predictions is their track record, except this one. Predicting outcomes of football games and seasons is far from an exact science, but there are some key factors that can and do impact a team’s season, some of which are not immediately obvious. Nevertheless, there are so many interrelated variables involved that perfection is impossible. My own track record is far from perfect, but since I started using my current formula I’ve at least been closer than the over/under total two of the last three seasons- 2023 being way off due to Kirk Cousins going down mid-season. In any case, this will be my tenth prediction over the past eleven seasons, having abandoned any prediction in 2016 after Teddy Bridgewater went down just prior to the start of the season. Here are the results:
2015: Prediction: 10-6. Actual: 11-5. Preseason over/under: 7.5
2016: No prediction after Bridgewater went down. Acutal: 8-8. Preseason over/under: 9.5 (pre-Bridgewater injury).
2017: Prediction: 12-4. Actual: 13-3. Preseason over/under: 8.5
2018: Prediction: 13-3. Actual: 8-7-1. Preseason over/under: 10
2019: Prediction: 11-5. Actual: 10-6. Preseason over/under: 9.
2020: Prediction: 11-5. Actual: 7-9. Preseason over/under: 8.5 (March)
2021: Prediction: 13-4. Actual: 8-9. Preseason over/under: 9.
2022: Prediction: 12-5. Actual: 13-4. Preseason over/under: 9.5.
2023: Prediction: 11-6. Actual: 7-10. Preseason over/under: 8.5.
2024: Prediction: 10-7. Actual: 14-3. Preseason over/under: 6.5.
2025: Prediction: 11-6. Actual: 9-8. Preseason over/under: 9.
The most difficult aspect of predicting the Vikings season record the past few years has been the lack of continuity at the quarterback position. In 2023, Kirk Cousins went down mid-season, leading to a trio of backups – one of which wasn’t on the roster at the beginning of the season- trying to manage the rest of the way. 2024 saw the reclamation of Sam Darnold, who I was optimistic about compared to most but not optimistic enough as it turned out. And last year I was too optimistic about J.J. McCarthy’s ability to have a Sam Darnold-like season, based on a piece I did in April 2025 that compiled the average stats of first-round quarterbacks landing in ‘good’ situations in their first full season as a starter. Of the 27 quarterbacks I measured in that piece, only Mark Sanchez had a slightly worse season than McCarthy did last year in terms of passer rating and ANY/A and it’s fair to say that Sanchez did not have the offensive weapons that McCarthy had (he did have the top defense). Given McCarthy’s relative performance compared to his backups last season, it didn’t really matter that he missed seven games and departed a couple others early due to injury.
Minnesota Vikings Last Season and Offseason Changes
The Vikings finished 9-8, including 4-2 in the division last season which resulted in a third-place finish. They managed to win nine games despite the second-worst quarterbacking in the league (above only the Browns) and the most giveaways in the league (30), based on a roughly top five defense and only two missed field goals all season. At one point the Vikings were 4-8 but took advantage of a soft remaining schedule to win their last five games.
They have continuity this season in coaching with Kevin O’Connell, Wes Phillips, Matt Daniels, and Brian Flores all returning as head coach and coordinators. Brian Flores was extended and is now believed to be the highest paid coordinator in league history.
It is noteworthy that the Vikings added Frank Smith as assistant head coach who is the de facto run game coordinator. In terms of baseline scheme, the Vikings will remain primarily an outside zone running team, but Frank Smith, who served as offensive coordinator under Mike McDaniel in Miami the past few years, along with Keith Carter as offensive line coach, will bring some innovation and greater attention to detail that the Vikings’ run game has been missing. The Vikings didn’t show much of their new run game in the preseason, but there has been a lot of buzz about it in training camp. We’ll see if it was warranted.
Kyler Murray
The big offseason addition was quarterback Kyler Murray, who the Vikings are hoping will raise their quarterback play from the bottom of the league to at least league average, if not higher. Unlike Sam Darnold, the Vikings previous quarterback reclamation project, Murray comes to the Vikings with roughly league average, rather than considerably worse, performance metrics. Both Murray and Darnold had mediocre teams around them in their pre-Vikings careers as starters.
It’s worth noting that Murray has been an above league-average quarterback over his pro career with the Cardinals, which if he was able to maintain that this season would be a major improvement over the Vikings’ 2025 quarterback performance. Murray’s QBR rankings (an adjusted EPA-based metric) each season since being drafted #1 overall in 2019:
- 2019: 14th (57.7)
- 2020: 14th (61.9)
- 2021: 7th (63.2)
- 2022: 18th (53.6)
- 2023: 22nd (48.0)
- 2024: 9th (63.4)
- 2025: 23rd (47.2) (over 5 games)
By contrast, the Vikings QBR last season- weighted average of McCarthy (35.6), Wentz (43.3), and Brosmer (14.3)- was 35.4. The way QBR is formulated, a league-average quarterback is meant to have a 50 QBR. This metric also represents the percentage chance the quarterback’s team would be expected to win, all other factors being equal, given the quarterback’s performance. Over Murray’s career, he has a season average QBR of 58.0.
By contrast, Sam Darnold’s season average QBR prior to joining the Vikings was 42.9. Darnold had a 57.3 QBR in his season with the Vikings.
Outside of Murray’s ACL injury shortened years of 2022-2023- also years the Cardinals defense ranked 31st in points allowed- and last season when he only played in five games (and had a 29th ranked defense), Murray has been an above average starting quarterback in QBR ranking and cracked the top ten in the two most recent seasons. And he did so in two significantly different schemes. When Murray has had an above average defense in points allowed (15th in 2024, 11th in 2021, 12th in 2020) his QBR has been in the low 60s. That’s not an unreasonable baseline expectation this season, given the team around him and Murray’s QBR history.
Offensively, outside of quarterback, the Vikings replaced WR3 Jalen Nailor with Jauan Jennings, who isn’t the athletic downfield threat Nailor was but may fit better with the Vikings scheme this year as a big, tough, contested catch, move-the-chains type receiver who can also block. Blake Brandel, who started 7 games last year at center, and took snaps there in a few others, takes over as the starter this season from the retired Ryan Kelly. The Vikings also replaced the retired C.J. Ham with Max Bredeson at fullback. They also added Demond Claiborne as RB3. Overall these are minor roster changes compared to last year’s roster.
Defensively, the Vikings traded edge rusher Jonathan Greenard to the Eagles, promoting Dallas Turner to the starting job and recently acquired Kyle Van Noy to provide experienced and capable depth. The Vikings also moved on from Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen at defensive tackle, promoting Levi Drake-Rodriquez and Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins while drafting Caleb Banks in the first round and Domonique Orange in the third round. Elijah Williams will also rotate at defensive tackle this season and looked good in preseason and joint practices. The Vikings also drafted linebacker Jake Golday in the second round.
In the defensive secondary, the Vikings will likely have the same starting lineup with the return of Harrison Smith but have added veteran James Pierre at cornerback along with promising 5th round pick Charles Demmings, and at safety added promising UDFA Jacob Thomas and third-round pick Jakobe Thomas. Overall, these defensive roster changes are not enough to warrant a change in forecasted win total this season.
But the big change is at quarterback and that warrants a significant three-game adjustment to the Vikings win total this season.
Injuries
Last season the Vikings ranked 9th in adjusted games lost (AGLs), despite losing their starting quarterback for seven games (and leaving halfway through two more). That is roughly average for teams with Tyler Williams as head of their training/sports science staffs, which prior to coming to the Vikings included the Rams as well. Here is his AGL track record:
- 2015: 80.3 (24th)
- 2016: 29.0 (1st)
- 2017: 15.6 (1st)
- 2018: 39.6 (4th)
- 2019: 60.6 (10th)
- 2020: 45.6 (2nd)
- 2021: 54.3 (5th)
- 2022: 51.9 (5th)
- 2023: 60.4 (15th)
- 2024: 65.3 (11th)
- 2025: 61.4 (9th)
Over the last ten seasons, the average annual ranking is 6.3 with an average of 48.4 AGLs per season. So, given that track record and the results last season, I could make an argument for fewer AGLs for the Vikings this season, but with a 9th overall ranking I’ll stick with that being close enough to average that no adjustment to the win total this season is warranted.
Luck Factors
As I’ve mentioned previously, I’ve had to slightly modify the sources for luck factors this year as one of the sources from last year stopped publishing their data. To determine luck factors, I am going again with the Luck Ratings from Team Rankings and using the differential between actual and estimated wins from the DVOA stats at FTN. I average the two numbers to get a game adjustment amount.
An example of a team winning a game they weren’t expected to win based on luck factors and post-game win expectancy or estimated wins is the Vikings victory over the Bills a few years ago with Jefferson’s iconic catch on 4th and 18 and Josh Allen fumbling the snap on the goal line. Neither is something likely to happen more often than not so while it was a game the Vikings won, it was also a game they would not be expected to win given the events of the game and the likelihood of them reoccurring that way (i.e. how many times out of 100 would Josh Allen fumble the snap at their one-yard line late in the game and the Vikings recover?).
The Vikings finished last season with a luck rating of +0.1 according to Team Rankings and estimated wins of 8.4 compared to actual 9 wins. Averaging those two results in +0.35 which is close enough to zero to not warrant an adjustment to this season’s win total based on a reversion to the mean in luck factors.
Strength of Schedule
The Vikings were tied for the 20th easiest schedule last season based on actual win-loss records of their opponents. This season, based on oddsmaker’s over/under win totals for their opponents, the Vikings have the 16th easiest schedule. That’s not much of a difference and therefore does not warrant any adjustment to their forecasted win total this season.
Here is the Vikings 2026 schedule:
The Vikings start with two division games and a tougher matchup at Tampa Bay, followed by two easier matchups at the Saints and home against the Dolphins. The five-game stretch after their bye week is brutal- Colts, at Lions, Bills, at Packers, 49ers in Mexico City. That’s the toughest five-game stretch I can remember in recent years. Fortunately, their schedule eases up after that, with just two road games among the final seven and perhaps only three tougher matchups against the Patriots, Lions, and Bears to end the regular season.
Prediction for the Vikings This Season
Overall, there was just one significant adjustment to the Vikings forecasted win total this season and that was three games due to the upgrade at quarterback from league bottom to just above average. Injuries, luck factors, and strength of schedule really weren’t even close in terms of warranting adjustments.
But a significant upgrade at the most important position in sports warrants a three-game adjustment, leading to a season regular season record prediction for the Vikings of 12-5. That is 3.5 games above the Vikings over/under win total of 8.5 games and tied with my prediction for the Detroit Lions, so the division winner in this scenario would come down to tie-breakers.
As I look at the pundit landscape for the Vikings just ahead of the start of the regular season, there appears to be nearly universal expectations that Kyler Murray will be an upgrade at quarterback for the Vikings. The question is how much of an upgrade will he be. This Vikings team is the best team Murray has been a part of and so it’s not outlandish for his performance to equal his better seasons in Arizona. And that would be a bit of an improvement over Sam Darnold in 2024 from a QBR standpoint.
There is also an upside scenario where based on a top five defense (which Murray has never had) a solid offensive line, a top-tier receiver group, and improved run game, Murray has a career year that puts him well into the top ten quarterback rankings. In that context it’s important to note that the Vikings face the easiest schedule in terms of pass defenses this season according to Warren Sharp. (see graphic below).
There is also a downside scenario where things never quite click and/or he misses a lot of time due to injury.
There are former teammates and beat writers in Arizona that expect him to bounce back strong in Minnesota, but there are some others who question whether he is the right fit for Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings scheme and/or whether he has the drive to succeed in a new system at this point in his career. The latter is in the minority.
There are also many who expect the Vikings defense to regress this season. I don’t see it. They point to the loss of Jonathan Greenard and Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave up front, and Harrison Smith (before his return was announced) in the back end. From what we’ve seen the last part of last season and so far in training camp and joint practices, there is no reason to believe that Dallas Turner is a downgrade from Greenard last season. And there is a chance he’s an upgrade. Part of the reason the Vikings were willing to trade Greenard in the first place, besides financial considerations, was they felt Turner was ready to step up. And adding Kyle Van Noy provides experienced and proven depth.
I do think the losses of Hargrave and Allen will have a negative effect, especially earlier in the season as Domonique Orange and Caleb Banks ramp up, but I expect the dropoff will be small. Jalen Redmond is solid, Levi Drake-Rodriquez looks a bit stronger this year, and the combination of Tyrion-Ingram Dawkins and Elijah Williams should hold up reasonably well as Orange and Banks work more into the rotation.
At linebacker and the defensive secondary, the starting lineup is the same but depth is improved. Between James Pierre and Charles Demmings, we could see more three cornerbacks on the field with Byron Murphy Jr. in the slot more often, but with Harrison Smith, Josh Metellus, Theo Jackson, Jay Ward, Jacob Thomas, and Jakobe Thomas, there are plenty of safeties that can play and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more merit-based rotation there.
But some will argue that Brian Flores’ blitz-happy scheme is bound to backfire on him eventually, but I really don’t see that either. Flores’ blitz scheme is much more nuanced and difficult to play against to the point where there are no simple counters.
On that topic, it’s important to note that the Vikings defense faced the second-toughest schedule of opposing offenses last season by DVOA but despite that finished third in that metric. The Vikings defense also allowed the league’s lowest explosive play rate (3.7%) despite facing opposing offenses that produced the highest explosive pass play rate and the fourth-highest explosive run play rate. They look to have a tough slate again this year- all the offenses in the division are good- but likely about the same as last season according to Warren Sharp’s analysis:
It’s also important to point out that the Vikings defense ranked third in DVOA last season (and 7th in points allowed) despite the Vikings offense producing the most turnovers in the league, having the lowest 3rd down conversion percentage in the league, and ranking 30th in time of possession. A more efficient offense would make the defense’s job that much easier.
And beyond all that, Brian Flores has established a solid track record of top defenses since he became de facto defensive coordinator in New England, including all three seasons he’s been in Minnesota.
From an analytics perspective, defensive results vary more year-to-year than offensive stats, but I’d argue that given the change in starting quarterback and Brian Flores as defensive coordinator with not that much roster turnover, there will be more variance in offensive results compared to last season than defensive results.
We’ll see.
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